Antique on Ramco Cements
Downgrade to Hold, TP cut to Rs 840 from Rs 1000
Cos 4Q realization to 4-yr low of less than Rs 4900/tn may not improve meaningfully in near-term as
a) South region utilization (currently at 65%) is unlikely to fall below 55% nor is it likely to cross 85%
b)Ramp-up of recently acquired low utilized assets by larger peers in near-term
Hence, Co’s profitability may not improve meaningfully in near-term which is key for deleveraging & re-rating
Cut FY25– 27E EBITDA by 5%–8%, lower target multiple to 12x (earlier 13x)
Jefferies on HDFC BK (Q1 update)
Buy, TP Rs 1880
Deposits were flat QoQ & below Rs297bn mobilised in 1QFY24, which was slightly disappointing.
Avg deposits were +5% QoQ
Await trends in retail & wholesale deposits, which were provided up to 4Q
MS on HDFC BK (Q1 update)
OW, TP Rs 1900
Volume growth expected to be soft owing to seasonality.
Period-end deposit growth was flat QoQ, but was up 4.6% QoQ on an average basis.
Reported loan growth was down 0.8% QoQ, largely owing to the wholesale segment (down 5% QoQ, by est.)
Nomura on HDFC BK (Q1 update)
Neutral, TP Rs 1660
Reported 11% y-y / flat q-q growth in its gross AUM on a proforma basis.
Net of loan sell-downs [i.e., interbank participatory certificates (IBPC)], gross loans declined by 0.8% q-q, while y-y growth stood at a soft 10.8% y-y.
Bernstein on HDFC BK (Q1 update)
O-P, TP Rs 2100
Yet another weak first quarter for deposits
Sharp decline in corporate/wholesale loans
Lower CASA might offset gains from better loan mix
CLSA on HDFC BK (Q1 update)
O-P, TP Rs 1725
Deposit accretion weaker-than-expected in 1QFY25
GS on NTPC
Buy, TP Rs 395
Govt seeking accelerated coal capacity ordering; suggests a sense of urgency, but supply chain could be a challenge
NTPC’s coal pipeline robust; impending foray into nuclear should provide long-term growth visibility
Trading at an appealing val
CITI On PNB (Q1 update)
Sell, TP Rs 95
Reported gross advances growth of 12.7% yoy/5.1% qoq, faster than 4Q growth of 11.5% yoy and CitiE of 3.4% qoq.
Domestic advances registered growth of 12.1% yoy/5% qoq
Expect retail & SME advances to be primary growth driver
MS on RBL BK (Q1 update)
UW, TP Rs 250
Gross loan growth 3% QoQ (18% YoY vs 19% in 4QF24).
Retail loan growth strong (10% QoQ vs. 6%), while non-retail declined (down 7% vs. +3%).
CASA deposits declined 9%, after +16% QoQ in 4QF24.
Liquidity strong (137% vs. 140%)
MS on Gujarat Gas
Gujarat Gas has lifted industrial natural gas prices amid global LNG supply disruptions & after increase in auto CNG prices by IGL
This should help margins recover as the economics still favour gas.Antique on Ramco Cements
Downgrade to Hold, TP cut to Rs 840 from Rs 1000
Cos 4Q realization to 4-yr low of less than Rs 4900/tn may not improve meaningfully in near-term as
a) South region utilization (currently at 65%) is unlikely to fall below 55% nor is it likely to cross 85%
b)Ramp-up of recently acquired low utilized assets by larger peers in near-term
Hence, Co’s profitability may not improve meaningfully in near-term which is key for deleveraging & re-rating
Cut FY25– 27E EBITDA by 5%–8%, lower target multiple to 12x (earlier 13x)
Jefferies on HDFC BK (Q1 update)
Buy, TP Rs 1880
Deposits were flat QoQ & below Rs297bn mobilised in 1QFY24, which was slightly disappointing.
Avg deposits were +5% QoQ
Await trends in retail & wholesale deposits, which were provided up to 4Q
MS on HDFC BK (Q1 update)
OW, TP Rs 1900
Volume growth expected to be soft owing to seasonality.
Period-end deposit growth was flat QoQ, but was up 4.6% QoQ on an average basis.
Reported loan growth was down 0.8% QoQ, largely owing to the wholesale segment (down 5% QoQ, by est.)
Nomura on HDFC BK (Q1 update)
Neutral, TP Rs 1660
Reported 11% y-y / flat q-q growth in its gross AUM on a proforma basis.
Net of loan sell-downs [i.e., interbank participatory certificates (IBPC)], gross loans declined by 0.8% q-q, while y-y growth stood at a soft 10.8% y-y.
Bernstein on HDFC BK (Q1 update)
O-P, TP Rs 2100
Yet another weak first quarter for deposits
Sharp decline in corporate/wholesale loans
Lower CASA might offset gains from better loan mix
CLSA on HDFC BK (Q1 update)
O-P, TP Rs 1725
Deposit accretion weaker-than-expected in 1QFY25
GS on NTPC
Buy, TP Rs 395
Govt seeking accelerated coal capacity ordering; suggests a sense of urgency, but supply chain could be a challenge
NTPC’s coal pipeline robust; impending foray into nuclear should provide long-term growth visibility
Trading at an appealing val
CITI On PNB (Q1 update)
Sell, TP Rs 95
Reported gross advances growth of 12.7% yoy/5.1% qoq, faster than 4Q growth of 11.5% yoy and CitiE of 3.4% qoq.
Domestic advances registered growth of 12.1% yoy/5% qoq
Expect retail & SME advances to be primary growth driver
MS on RBL BK (Q1 update)
UW, TP Rs 250
Gross loan growth 3% QoQ (18% YoY vs 19% in 4QF24).
Retail loan growth strong (10% QoQ vs. 6%), while non-retail declined (down 7% vs. +3%).
CASA deposits declined 9%, after +16% QoQ in 4QF24.
Liquidity strong (137% vs. 140%)
MS on Gujarat Gas
Gujarat Gas has lifted industrial natural gas prices amid global LNG supply disruptions & after increase in auto CNG prices by IGL
This should help margins recover as the economics still favour gas.
