Jefferies On HPCL
Underperform Call, Target Rs 315
Q1 Showed Weak Set Of Numbers With EBITDA Down 56% QoQ But Was 21% Ahead Of Est
EBITDA Came Higher Than Est On Higher Marketing Inventory Gains While Refining Was Weaker
Co Remains Vulnerable With No Change To Retail Prices Post Elections
Refining Margin Should Remain Rangebound, Keeping Integrated Margin Under Pressure
Keep FY25/26 Estimates Largely Unchanged; Risk-reward Is Unfavorable After Steep Rally
Citi on HPCL
Buy Call, Target Rs 420
Q1 EBITDA Came Well Below Estimate
GRM Was Expectedly Down QoQ From $7/bbl To $5/bbl, Slightly Ahead Of Our $4.5/bbl Est)
Miss Was Primarily On Account Of An LPG Under Recovery Of Rs 250 Cr
Net Income At Rs 360 Cr (Down 87% QoQ) Was Therefore, Well Below Rs 890 Cr Est
Govt Has Not Announced Any Budgetary Compensation For LPG
Compensation For LPG Could Possibly Be Announced Later In Year
Compensation For LPG Will Help OMCs Reverse These Under-Recoveries
UBS on HPCL
Buy, TP Rs 445
LPG under-recovery & low distillate yield impact Q1 earnings
Strong physical performance; earnings above UBSe
GRM at $5/bbl(in-line) as distillate yield lags
Earnings impacted by Rs25bn of LPG under-recoveries for qtr
JPM on HPCL
Neutral, TP Rs 335
Weak 1Q PAT, 73% below JPMe
Moderate miss on Gross Profits translated to sharp bottom line miss due to co’s higher-than-peers P&L leverage
Higher operating leverage can help earnings surprise if Oil prices fall &retail prices remain stagnant
Jefferies on BEL
Buy, Target Raised To Rs 370
Q1 EBITDA Was 33% Above Expectations As Both Margin & Revenue Surprised
Co Is Market Leader In Domestic Defense Electronics
Co Benefits From Spend Across The Army, Navy And Air Force
Management Remains Upbeat On Order Flow Outlook
Non-defence Progress Remains Muted
FY24-FY27 Should See Double-digit Revenue Growth Based On Order Book And Pipeline
Jefferies on NTPC
Buy Call, Target Raised To Rs 485
Q1FY25 Profit Was 11% Above Expectations
Fixed Cost Under Recovery Was `200 Cr Vs `100 Cr YoY, Impact Was Offset By Higher Coal/Gas PLFs
Q1 Capacity Addition Was Muted At 90 MW
Management Guides For 23 GW Addition Over FY25E-27 Led By Renewables
Renewable Energy Capacity Ramp-Up Remain Re-Rating Drivers
Pilot Initiatives On Green Hydrogen Remain Re-Rating Drivers
CLSA on NTPC
O-P, TP Rs 441
1Q rec. PAT up 23% YoY(5% ahead of est.)
on 13% regulated equity growth & favourable regulations FY24-29
Core execution robust but renewable disappointed
Co claimed it had pipeline of 26GW of regulated projects & 24GW in non-fossil projects
HSBC on NTPC
Hold, TP Rs 355
NTPC’s analyst meeting was all about thermal; management did not comment on renewable plan, citing upcoming IPO
Intends to order out 15GW over next two fiscal years, install 60GW by 2032, & progress nuclear capacity
BOFA Sec on NTPC
U-P, TP Rs 271
Earnings in line; capacity additions guidance upgrade; see delays
Thermal ordering guidance maintained: 15.2GW by FY27
Execution a risk, valns rich despite optimistic assumptions
MS on ACC
Equal-Weight Call, Target Rs 2,930
Q1 Key Takeaways Include Volumes (Cement + Clinker) Which Were Up 9% YoY
Q1 Volumes Were Much Higher Than Estimate Of 4% YoY
Realisations Were Weaker, Moderating 3.1% QoQ Vs Forecast Of 1.5% Sequential Moderation
Fuel Costs Did Better Than Expected
Better Fuel Costs Benefits Were Broadly Offset By Higher Raw Materials & ‘Other’ Costs
Jefferies on ACC
Buy Call, Target Rs 3,045
Q1 Earnings Data Showed EBITDA In-line
1Q Volumes Grew 9% YoY, Which Were A Beat
Realisation Was Lower 3% QoQ Vs Estimate Of 2-2.5% QoQ Dip
PAT At Rs 360 Cr Vs Est Of `380 Cr Was Lower 22% YoY On Higher Depreciation
Cash Position Dipped Due To Opportunistic Buying Of Input Material (RM, Fuel) & Capex Purposes
Nomura on ACC
Reduce, TP Rs 2200
1Q: Strong vol growth delivers marginal beat on EBITDA
Vols grew 9% y-y to 10.2MT & beat est. by 5%
Expect higher share of MSA (master supply agreement) volumes, resulting in such high vol
Blended EBITDA/t of Rs 664/t in lin
CLSA on ACC
Hold, TP Rs 2730
1Q Ebitda of Rs6.8bn (-12% YoY) largely in line as higher volumes offset weak profitability.
Volumes grew 9% YoY to 10.2mt
Realisations fell 3% QoQ – in line with estimates
Nomura on Colgate
Sell Call, Target Rs 2,800
Q1 Was All-round Beat; Volume Growth Of 6-7% Vs Est. Of 2%
Strong GPM/OPM Expansion Continues Driving 22% EBITDA Growth
Increase FY25/26/27 EPS By 4.0%/2.8%/1.6% To Factor In Q1 Beat
Believe Risk-reward Is Unfavourable Given It Is Entering A Moderate EPS Growth Phase
Jefferies on Colgate
Buy Call, Target Raised To Rs 3,570
Co Delivered An Impressive Growth In Revenues Led By Confluence Of Macro Factors
Co Saw Pick Up In Rural Along With Strong Execution
Higher Than Expected Gross Margins Along With Operating Leverage Benefits Helped
Co Reported Earnings Well Ahead Of Estimates
Beat Q1 Result Drove Us To Upgrade Earning Estimates For 3rd Quarter In A Row
CLSA on Colgate
Upgrade to hold, TP Raised to Rs 3157
1Q sales 3% above est & Ebitda 2% above est
Toothpaste volume growth of high single digits was above estimate of c.6%.
Rural grew faster than urban for 2nd qtr in a row
HSBC on Colgate
Hold, TP Rs 3000
Stock’s impressive run-up likely a result of revenue growth, margin reset & rise of market defensiveness
Q1 results stand out by a wide margin; high-single-digit vol growth with significant beat on revenue & profits
Vals rich; see ltd upside
BoFA on Colgate
U-P, TP Rs 3175
1Q ahead of expectations
Margin trajectory could normalize
Medium-term upside potential priced in
1Q performance was strong even last year, but then growth rates normalized thereafter
